MORTGAGE BLOG

Market Update: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Says it’s Time to Start Cutting Rates

Blog posted On August 23, 2024

The time has come! Today marks the second-to-last day of the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is a big central banking conference that takes place this time each year. This morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell took the stage for a highly anticipated speech about the current economic state and future Fed outlook. Though Powell is known for his elusive answers during press conferences, he had a straightforward message this morning: “The time has come for policy to adjust.” In other words, it’s time for rates cuts.

Market Update: Refinance Applications Surge Following Rate Drop

Blog posted On August 09, 2024

Following last week’s downward trend in mortgage rates, the number of refinance application submissions surged 16% week-over-week. Compared to the same period last year, the Refinance Index was up 59%. Lower rates mean more people could benefit from refinancing their mortgage and saving on their monthly mortgage payment

Market Update: Rates Drop to Lowest Levels of the Year After Fed Announcement

Blog posted On August 01, 2024

We rounded out the last few days in July with a nice downward trend mortgage rates. Though we’re still waiting for some key employment reports to come out tomorrow, this week has been full of good news for rates and housing. Let’s dive in!

Market Update: Are Rate Cuts on the Horizon for the Fed?

Blog posted On July 17, 2024

This morning, we got news about the housing starts and building permits from June. Though both numbers were higher than expected, the increases are largely due to multifamily building. The more hopeful news of the week came from this morning’s comments from Fed members and yesterday’s National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market sentiment index.

Market Update: Rates Hit Four-Month Low Following Cool Inflation News

Blog posted On July 11, 2024

Three cheers for the consumer price index (CPI)! This morning, the CPI for June showed that inflation is going down. As a result, MBS prices are significantly stronger, which has resulted in lower mortgage rate movement for the day. In fact, the drop has brought the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to the lowest level since March. 

Market Update: Rates Inch Higher but Could Reverse the Trend with Upcoming Jobs Data

Blog posted On July 03, 2024

Mortgage rates have inched higher in recent weeks after starting June out with a nice winning streak. However, with the upcoming jobs reports, they could trend lower once again. Aside from inflation, jobs reports are the most influential set of economic data when it comes to mortgage rate trends. Weaker job markets tend to correlate to lower rates, and vice versa.

Market Update: Rates Slide After Low Inflation Data

Blog posted On June 13, 2024

Yesterday brought some great news for those of us who enjoy lower-trending mortgage rates. Following the release of May’s inflation report, rates took a tumble. Later in the day, they inched up slightly following the Fed announcement, but the overall daily trend was still downward progress.

Market Update: Rates Unchanged After a Volatile Week; More Drama Ahead This Week Could Send them Lower

Blog posted On June 03, 2024

Though last week was a short week thanks to the Memorial Day holiday, it sure felt long. Rates started off the week inching higher – partly due to the long weekend partly due to comments from some Fed members. Then, they started to trend lower toward the end of the week as a result from some rate-friendly economic data. This week holds the potential to continue the lower rate trend with the jobs reports.

Market Update: Good News for Rates This Morning Thanks to Inflation & Retail Sales Data

Blog posted On May 15, 2024

Earlier today, we received April’s consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales reports – both of which had slightly lower numbers than experts had predicted. The result has been overwhelmingly positive. Prices on mortgage-backed securities are showing strong upward movement so far, which should result in lower-trending rates for today.

Market Update: Rates See Relief Last Week After Fed Announcement and Employment Situation

Blog posted On May 06, 2024

First, it’s important to clarify that the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. When people talk about the Fed ‘hiking’ or ‘cutting’ rates, they’re referring to the benchmark interest rate. The Fed’s rate decisions rarely have a consequential effect on mortgage rates because in most cases the markets already know what the decisions will be before the announcement, and they adjust pricing accordingly. The bigger event on Fed announcement day is the press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Here, the markets get a better idea of what the Fed is thinking about for the future. In the most recent conference last week, the markets got a better idea about what the Fed’s thinking for future rate hikes/cuts.

Market Update: Builders Are Feeling Confident About the Housing Market

Blog posted On March 18, 2024

Mortgage rates trended higher last week thanks to a hotter-than-expected inflation report. But it’s a new week! And so far, we’re off to a strong start for housing news. This morning, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released its housing market sentiment index for the month of March. It showed that builders think the housing market is in a much better place than it was this time last year.

Market Update: Rates Ended Last Week Trending Lower but Upcoming Jobs Reports Could Change Things

Blog posted On March 04, 2024

Rates trended higher throughout much of last week, but Friday’s economic data helped bring some relief. This week’s jobs reports have a strong influence on rate trends. Let’s take a look at what the week could hold.

Market Update: Home Prices Reach All-Time High in December; Will They Continue Climbing?

Blog posted On February 27, 2024

Mortgage rate trends have been relatively unchanged over the past week. Home price appreciation, on the other hand, has changed quite a bit over the past four years. According to Case-Shiller home price data released this morning, prices have surged 46% since 2019. They reached a new all-time high in December after climbed 0.2% month-over-month. This puts buyers in an increasingly difficult position, wedged between higher-trending interest rates and soaring home prices. Read more about what the experts are saying.

Market Update: Hopes of a May Rate Cut Dwindle After Hot Inflation News

Blog posted On February 13, 2024

January’s consumer price index came in hotter than expected this morning, causing stocks and mortgage bonds drop. Mortgage rates have the inverse reaction of mortgage bonds, so it’s likely that rates will trend higher. Looking long-term, experts are speculating that this higher inflation report could impact the possibility of a rate cut in May.

Market Update: Strong Jobs Reports Push Rates Higher – but Not THAT High

Blog posted On February 06, 2024

There are a lot of headlines floating around about rate momentum towards the end of last week. Here’s what most of them sound like: last week’s employment situation crushed rates’ downward momentum. When you say it like that (which most of the media is), it sounds bad. But if you look at the bigger trend, it’s not that bad. It’s not bad for two reasons.

Market Update: Rates Inch Higher but the Market Finds Silver Linings

Blog posted On January 23, 2024

Rates trended higher last week, thanks to some comments from Fed members and stronger economic reports. Retail sales came in hot in December, which suggests higher consumer spending, pushes inflation higher, and generally makes rates trend higher. Additionally, Fed member Waller made comments that had a negative impact on the bond market and rates. Despite a week of mostly bad news, there were still some silver linings.

Market Update: Inflation Data Proves Lower-Trending Rates Are Here to Stay

Blog posted On January 16, 2024

Two sets of data have had one strong hold on rate movement over the past few years: jobs data and inflation trends. The higher the inflation or jobs numbers, the higher the rate trends. Last week was different. Though inflation numbers on the consumer price index came in above expectations, rates trended lower. This is big news for a couple of reasons.

Market Update: Rates Slid Downward Last Week but the Trend Could be Reversed with This Week’s Reports

Blog posted On December 05, 2023

Rates tumbled down to the lowest levels in three months last week, giving hopeful buyers and owners much needed relief. The underlying cause was movement in the bond market, which influences rate trends. Right now, the market is walking on eggshells. Last week’s progress could easily be reversed by the results from this week’s economic reports – mainly the jobs reports. However, if the jobs reports come in weaker than expected, they could help push rates even lower.

Market Update: Rates Slide to 2-Month Lows and Home Price Appreciation Grows

Blog posted On November 28, 2023

Last week, average rates officially brushed two-month lows. Though they climbed slightly higher on Friday, they recovered lost ground yesterday. Also released yesterday was the new home sales report for October, which showed a slowdown but had some hopeful hints as well. This morning, the Case-Shiller home price index revealed that home prices are still climbing.

Market Update: Rates Inch Higher; Big Inflation Data Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On November 13, 2023

Mortgage rates inched slightly higher last week, which is to be expected after the large downward swing we saw a couple of weeks ago. This week could shake things up with the consumer price index (CPI) inflation data from October.

Market Update: Calm Seas for Rates Last Week Set the Stage for Big Wave Potential this Week

Blog posted On October 31, 2023

Last week, rates trended downward slightly, but as we know, this won’t be a lasting trend until economic data can show significant signs of cooling. This week, there are plenty of big reports on the horizon.

Market Update: Glimmers of Hope Exist as Rates Climb Higher, but How High Will They Go?

Blog posted On October 23, 2023

We’ll start with the bad news: rates continued to climb last week and reached the highest levels in 23 years. It didn’t take much for them to get there since they were already flirting with the line. Nonetheless, it leaves many wondering how much higher rates will climb. We’ll get to that, but we’ll also talk about the silver linings and good news.

Market Update: Rates Bounce Higher After a Week of Progress; Fed Members Debating a Pause in Hikes

Blog posted On October 17, 2023

Mortgage rates made good downward progress last week. This week is a different story. Yesterday, rates jumped back to higher levels for no specific reason from any economic reports. However, there might be hope on the horizon. Several Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have been vocal about their belief in a rate hike pause.

Market Update: Bond Market Strength Pushes Rates Lower After a Week of Jumps

Blog posted On October 10, 2023

Last week, rates trended higher after various employment reports exceeded jobs growth expectations. Strong jobs market = strong economy = weaker bond market = higher rates. However, the events over the weekend have reversed the trend.

Market Update: Rates Climb and Bounce; Could See More Movement This Week with Jobs Data Releases

Blog posted On October 02, 2023

Last week, mortgage rates initially trended higher due to weakness in the underlying bond market. However, when we see a notable upward trend in rates, we can normally expect a ‘bounce’ lower at some point. This is exactly what we saw on Thursday and Friday. While the drop didn’t take rates lower than they were a couple of weeks ago, it did help them recover the ground they lost throughout last week. What will it take for them to continue dropping lower?